![]() Local hurricane correspondents wanted!. Only reports received for this season are listed. GertĬurrent Tropical Weather Outlook ( NHC/TPC): Find the full forecast here and a nice discussion by Yale Climate Connections (Jeff Masters) here. We have to prepare, regardless of forecasts. However, we all know, just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil the whole season. It's still nice to read though that it might not be a too busy season, just like Tropical Storm Risk forecasted (see post below). ![]() ![]() Having said that, forecasts these early in the season are not that good, so we shouldn't put too much faith in them. However, if no El Nino develops than we might be in for a busy season. Although sea surface temperature are above normal, a 'robust' El Nino is expected to develop, which will make up for the higher SSTs. They also anticipate a (slightly) below average season. Klotzbach et al at Colorado State issued their first forecast for the season. Read more on Jeff Masters' blog at Yale Climate Connections. Just 8 hours before it peaked at 175 mph winds, a North Indian Ocean record! Same as Maria and similar to Irma (Irma maxed out at 180 mph). Cyclone Mocha made landfall in Myanmar as a Category 4 with 155 mph winds. Sunday, 15:03PM PDT - Cyclone Mocha, North Indian Ocean’s strongest storm on record, hits Myanmar Preparation is key! Stay safe everybody! -Gert Even though it is forecast to be a below normal season, just one hurricane on your doorstep can be catastrophic. I hope everyone is well prepared, or getting there. See the image below of storm origins in the month of June from 1944-2019 taken from the climatology section. This early in the season we have to look at the Gulf of Mexico, eastern Central America and east of Florida for storm development. A post-storm analysis concluded that this system had subtropical characteristics and was thus 'upgraded' to storm number One. The storm, named invest 90L at that time, made actually landfall in Nova Scotia. Apparently that honor goes to a system back in January between the States and Bermuda. What happened to number One you might ask. This is actually the second cyclone of the season. It is not moving much, and with wind shear ahead it is not expected to live long. Right now we have a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures are well above normal though (see bottom image on the satellite imagery page), and since hurricanes get their energy from the heat in the ocean that might counteract some of the El Nino effects. This enhances wind shear above the Atlantic (everything is connected), which inhibits hurricane strengthening. The main reason is the development of an El Nino event in the Pacific. Welcome back for the 28th (!) season that we are doing this! According to multiple seasonal forecasts (see earlier posts) this year is expected to be below normal. Well, it is June 1, that means the official start of a new season. Thursday, J19:19PM PDT - Start of 2023 Season
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